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Asked by virtnack to David, Luna, Mark, Melanie, Probash on 17 Mar 2011 in Categories: General.
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David Pyle answered on 16 Mar 2011:
An interesting question!
I saw a paper on this a few years ago, and the idea was that if something now living has survived for X million years, as a species, then you could use this observation alone to estimate how much longer it might live. So for the human race (anatomically modern humans), let’s say it has lasted 0.2 Million years. There is a 95% probability that this value lies between 2.5% and 97.5% of the total lifetime of the species; so the maximum length of time the human race will last is about (0.2/0.025) = 8 million years.. That’s quite a relief, until you realise that the human race probably has the capacity to self-destruct, either by intention or by accident!
As for the next ice age – here we are in an interesting spot. The last 3 ice ages were spaced about 100,000 years apart – so the next full ice age may not be for another 80,000 years. Climate has fluctuated on short timescales as well, so it wouldn’t be a surprise if there was a short cooling in the next 30 – 40,000 years, depending of course on what humans have done about global warming in the meantime!
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Luna Munoz answered on 16 Mar 2011:
There is some interesting information about the history of the world in a book I just finished called ‘What On Earth Happened?’ It states that in the grand scheme of the history of the earth, we humans have only been on Earth for a blink of an eye (I think the movie 28 Days Later also has a quote along those lines). Dinosaurs ruled for longer than we have so far, so we may be here for longer than we think. I don’t know how long we will last, however.
Some suggest that if global warming continues as it has, then it will be a long time until the next ice age, especially if the ice caps melt completely. Maybe other scientist will address this question a bit more in depth.
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Melanie Stefan answered on 17 Mar 2011:
Dinosaurs were around for millions of years, so in theory, the human race could do that as well. That is, if we manage to live within our means and not destroy the planet too much.
As to ice ages: We are currently in one. Enjoy!
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