This is a really important question given how dangerous this cyanobacteria is to the whole food chain and crucial to issues of eutrophication (water pollution), but I would also add straight out I am NOT a specialist in this, so I am pointing you towards two good papers that might help. Both note the role of phosphorous levels in promoting the appearance of Planktothrix blooms, the second in a study of ‘palaeo’ records since the 1950s.
Jacquet et al. (2005) suggested that declining phosphorus levels, milder winters and strong water column stratification could be factors. [Jacquet S., Briand J.F., Leboulanger C., Avois-Jacquet C., Oberhaus L., Tassin B. et al. (2005) The proliferation of the toxic cyanobacterium Planktothrix rubescens followingrestoration of the largest natural French lake (Lac du
Bourget). Harmful Algae, 4, 651–672.]
And Savichtchava et al. (2011) charted a possible correlation between blooms and intermediate phosphorous concentrations [Savichtcheva O., Debroas D., Kurmayer R., Villar C., Jenny J.P., Arnaud F. et al. (2011) Quantitative PCR enumeration of total/toxic Planktothrix rubescens and total cyanobacteria in preserved DNA isolated from lake sediments.
Applied and Environmental Microbiology, 77, 8744–8752.]
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