So the main thing that would determine this is how different the mutations make the virus. A vaccine works by showing our immune system a part of the virus so that it can make antibodies that will recognise it if we got infected later. One of the common virus parts that is being used currently is the spike protein (which is that bit that sticks out you see in pictures and how the virus gets into cells). The way antibodies would recognise the spike protein is through their shape – a bit like puzzle pieces they fit together!
Now a mutation is where there is a change in the genetics of the virus (in this case it’s RNA not DNA), this change in the genetics will then change the proteins the virus makes. This change could affect how it works or its shape… which is what the antibodies are using to recognise it. Coronaviruses have more proteins than just the spike protein, so the mutations might not happen to the spike. Or it might happen in a different part of the spike to where the antibodies work. If it did happen where the antibodies fit this could cause the antibody to no longer fit and no longer be able to recognise the mutated virus – meaning the vaccine wouldn’t be protective anymore.
However, like I said the mutations can also affect how the protein works, and it’s really important the spike protein is the right shape so it can do it’s job getting into cells. So it might be that the spike can’t mutate very much without making the virus ineffective, which adds some protection to the vaccine continuing to work!
Hi David, this would very much depend on the type of vaccine. If it is a single component vaccine, meaning that it is made with a specific protein of the virus, then the efficacy of the vaccine will very much depend on how much that specific protein changes and how susceptible it is to mutation. If the vaccine is made with an inactivated virus, then it would have more chances to keep efficacy because it would stimulate an immune response to many of the components of the virus, so if some of them change others might not. As far as the results from the sequencing efforts at the Sanger institute can tell, it seems that though this virus does have mutations which can identify where it has come from, overall it seems relatively stable.
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IMPORTANT: This question and its answers are about the COVID-19 virus. The information on this page might be out of date or wrong.
For up-to-date health information and advice, please go to the NHS website: https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/coronavirus-covid-19/